Israel-Saudi ‘deal of the century’ aint happening. Here’s why
Remember when all the talk was about the “deal of the century”?
The term, coined by Egypt’s strongman President Abdel Fatteh el-Sisi, referred to a potential grand alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel. It would be, everyone agreed, a gamechanger. That deal would finally bring peace to a region long in tumult by ending Israel’s status as a diplomatic pariah in Arab capitals. Crucially, by requiring “a good life for the Palestinians”, it would give a harried people the chance to turn the page into happier times.
In fact, “a good life for the Palestinians” was the simple hope advanced for the Palestinians by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September 2023, when he spoke about a potential agreement with Israel. It would be, MBS said, “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War”.
It’s not happening…too much has changed and it’s not clear when the kaleidoscope will swing back.
As we approach the doleful one-year anniversary of the October 7 attacks on Israel and its subsequent decision to furiously lash out at the people of Gaza, consider the transformed landscape.
For Gazans, the world has changed beyond recognition: more than 40,000 killed; uncounted thousands wounded; the entire population traumatised by the horrors of facing collective punishment for a whole year.
For the region as a whole, the big picture on peace has never been more gloomy with a broader Israel-Lebanon war looming on the horizon, even as Israel continues to lay waste to Gaza, its people and even attacks the West Bank.
Add to that MBS’s assertion that there won’t be a deal of the century…not yet. In remarks to a Saudi senior advisory council, he said the kingdom won’t establish diplomatic relations with Israel before the “establishment of a Palestinian state”.
With that statement, two of West Asia’s knottiest issues are tied in a knurl that may defy disentangling.
Back in September 2023, MBS had set “a good life for the Palestinians” as a pre-condition but there was no mention of Palestinian statehood.
Now, MBS has said: “The kingdom will not cease its tireless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that the kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without one”. He added, “We thank all the countries that recognized the Palestinian state as an embodiment of international legitimacy, and we urge other countries to take similar steps”.
The Saudis are smarting at the impunity allowed to Israel and aren’t loathe to make it clear.
Originally published at https://www.rashmee.com
